Where is the plot in Euro monetary data?

The European Central Bank Press release shows annual increases for money supply of 3.2% for M3 and 2.7% for M1.  

There are number of issues here:

Money supply growth over the last few months is likely to have been impacted by the exchange of money for securities (Long Term Repurchase Operations) by the ECB.

Annual inflation was running at 2.7% in March, so real money supply growth is much lower.

But the real side of the story is loan growth and it is via loan growth that money supply impacts economic activity: annual loan growth to the private sector has risen 1.3% (adjusting for securitisations), or a negative 1.4%. 

Looking at more recent data, loans to households have risen by an annualised 0.57% since January, buoyed by lending for house purchase – credit for consumption declined in both February and March.

Loans to non financial corporations, rose by 0.3% in the year to March, but both February and March showed declines in lending, so effective recent growth is negative.

But this data is seasonally adjusted and it is possible that lending data would have been worse had it not been the for the above seasonal winter temperatures, which may have boosted lending for home purchases.

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