Japan GDP

Japanese GDP data is taken from the Cabinet Office.  Real GDP has yet to recover its pre recession high but Q1 data appeared strong at first sight:

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But the year on year increase shows a relatively sharp rebound (due in part to the impact of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis).  

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Adjust for this effect by taking a 5 quarter growth rate (annual is 4 quarter growth), and we see the current growth profile is much weaker:

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Household consumption growth has led the way, both before and after adjustment for the effects of March 2011:

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But private non residential investment has been weak:

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What if the contribution of net exports to growth could be exposed going forward?

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GDI has lagged relative to GDP:

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But, increasingly so over the recent past:

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While the differential has increased, the rate of change of the differential has slowed:

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