Japanese GDP data is taken from the Cabinet Office. Real GDP has yet to recover its pre recession high but Q1 data appeared strong at first sight:
But the year on year increase shows a relatively sharp rebound (due in part to the impact of the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear crisis).
Adjust for this effect by taking a 5 quarter growth rate (annual is 4 quarter growth), and we see the current growth profile is much weaker:
Household consumption growth has led the way, both before and after adjustment for the effects of March 2011:
But private non residential investment has been weak:
What if the contribution of net exports to growth could be exposed going forward?
GDI has lagged relative to GDP:
But, increasingly so over the recent past:
While the differential has increased, the rate of change of the differential has slowed: