Manufacturing woes part 2: it is looking more and more like a RECESSION!

The weakness in US manufacturing orders is significant and when taken with other weak data (retail sales, income etc), suggests that the US is as good as in another recession, or at least one quarter of negative GDP growth.

US manufacturing orders, whether we look at total orders, orders less defense or less transport, are seeing a significant declining trend:

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And a shorter term look:

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Durable goods orders, a significant component of total manufacturing orders, showed a significant increase in June, but this was largely to do with transportation orders:

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Despite the uptick in June, and the help from transportation, the last six months show a declining trend.  A look at percentage changes also confirms the slowdown/decline.

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If we exclude both defense and aircraft orders, underlying durable goods orders continued to show a declining trend.:

Long term:

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Short term:

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With the weakness in retail sales, non durable goods sales may also not break their recent trend:

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And, also, it appears that the inventory cycle may have peaked, that is with the exception of certain sectors, primarily transportation:

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An downturn in the inventory cycle has historically been a classic recessionary indicator.

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