US New orders

A negative reading on the core, a downward revision for the previous monthly decline, while total durable goods orders rose 4.2% on the month in July: behind this were some really large seasonally adjusted increases in the transportation sector :

All charts unless otherwise noted are sourced with data from the US Census Bureau.


Seasonally unadjusted data showed a 13.6% monthly decline.

Almost all of the seasonal increase has come from non defense aircraft and parts which posted similar seasonal and seasonally unadjusted increases:


Non defense aircraft and parts orders are notoriously volatile as noted by the Quantas order cancellation (similar in size to this months increase in orders) which is similar in size to the July increase in aircraft orders.

Motor vehicles and parts also posted a strong 12.2% seasonally adjusted increase (-24% unadjusted):


We can see arguments for non defense aircraft and parts declining in the next month, but what about motor vehicles and parts?   As I will look at in the next post, motor vehicles and parts are heavily exposed to a cyclical downturn with current demand/inventory dynamics historically weak.

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