Non farm payrolls–a weak report, all things considered!

50% of non farm payroll employment gains both this and last month came from government, health and education.   Upward revisions to the two prior months came mainly from government jobs – July and August saw 91,000 more government jobs than previously counted.

Total private payrolls saw a small but important downward adjustment over the last two months:

Manufacturing saw job losses and downward revisions to previous losses – non durable goods saw small downward adjustments from a small gain to a small loss of employment, which could be significant .

Private service sector employment saw an increase of 114,000 jobs but 43% of this was from health and education; wholesale trade lost at the margin with prior downward revisions and retail gained marginally with some upward adjustment; transportation and warehousing grew by 15% of the private service sector total, but the important professional and business service sector showed its weakest increase for some time as well as downward revisions for the prior two months; leisure and hospitality growth also weakened with no net up or down adjustment over the prior two months.

If government cutbacks take effect, one would expect government, health and education jobs to negatively impact future payroll data. 

Leave a Reply