Recovery puzzle missing another piece: German manufacturing orders

Total orders (volume) fell by 4.8% over a year ago (unadjusted) and by 1.3% adjusted (X-12_ARIMA) over the month to August. 

The corresponding figure for domestic manufacturing new orders was –8.1% and –3%.   Non domestic fell 1.9% over the year and were unchanged over the month on the same basis. 

Domestic capital goods fell –10% over the year and by 6.8% on the month.   Year over year domestic capital goods new orders has been negative since February and the current level of orders is not much different from 2003/2004.

Durable goods orders were down on the year (annual unadjusted growth has been negative since December) and up on the month.  Non durable goods are up on the year but down on the last two months and are little changed from levels seen in 2004 and 2005.

Germany is heavily reliant on its manufacturing sector for jobs, growth and for supporting European financial stability.   While it may need to increase consumption as a % of GDP to help rebalance global growth (along with the likes of Japan and China), it cannot do this in the short term without stable demand for its products. 

An important piece of the global recovery puzzle is still missing.  It would be useful to have more detailed statistics available on new orders, much like those found in the US Census Bureau data.     

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