US retail sales

Actual expenditure growth remains weak on a year on year basis (September), but seasonal adjustments push adjusted data higher.  Unadjusted annual data shows retail sales growth falling back significantly from the rise in August, while adjusted data shows August’s rise sustained in September.  

On a seasonally adjusted basis US retail sales and food services have increased by  5.25% over the year.  

On an unadjusted basis, actual expenditure has risen by 3% (2.8% ex motor vehicles and parts) over the year, or by some 1% real if we were to adjust for a 2% annual unadjusted CPI.  image

Yes, adjusted sales are stronger, but as noted in a previous post savings are down, and based on latest data, disposable income growth has been weakening. 

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