US Manufacturing PMI

I thought the October PMI may have been overly influenced by the timing of new orders and hence the seasonal adjustment helped boost the October reading.  We have seen a fall back in the seasonally adjusted November data that more than accounts for the October surge in new orders.  Inventories have also weakened, as has the order backlogs indicator, and export orders.   Overall the November PMI is the weakest since July 2009.  As always short term factors influence month to month trends, but the overall strength of the index itself is insalutary.

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