Differences between the CES and CPS survey data….

Many have noted the difference between the Current Population Survey (sampled data but wider spectrum) and the CES payroll data, but there is a two step pattern here. 

The following chart shows the accumulated monthly new jobs as a % of the monthly employment total for private payrolls, non farm employment and the current population survey data.  To all intents and purposes the CPS data shows a wide divergence over the last two months. 

The trouble is, there is a pattern here, and if the pattern repeats there is no significant divergence.

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Two steps to the side, two steps up…

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