Many have noted the difference between the Current Population Survey (sampled data but wider spectrum) and the CES payroll data, but there is a two step pattern here.
The following chart shows the accumulated monthly new jobs as a % of the monthly employment total for private payrolls, non farm employment and the current population survey data. To all intents and purposes the CPS data shows a wide divergence over the last two months.
The trouble is, there is a pattern here, and if the pattern repeats there is no significant divergence.
Two steps to the side, two steps up…