US PMIs

Is the US economy recovering and do recent US ISM PMIs suggest we are on the uptrend?

The US manufacturing PMI turned up, slightly, but is still bouncing more or less along the 50 line, a line which is the dividing point between contraction in manufacturing activity and growth.    image

Production, new orders and inventory (slightly) components were up, while employment fell.   The export/import orders components also improved.   Compare this to most recent total manufacturing order data (May):

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And against shorter term data (annual, 6 month and quarterly % increases):

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And nominal orders adjusted for inflation:

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And the most recent manufacturing output data:

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And then compare the manufacturing index to the service sector (non manufacturing ISM PMI):

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The service sector appears to be slowing down, and we can only discern that the manufacturing sector is bouncing along the bottom.  

We also have low income growth, fiscal austerity, weak global markets and domestic demand still supported by government transfer payments:

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And growth in real personal disposable income per capita has been very weak:

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