US GDP

Revisions to revisions: what are the sensitivities?

Nominal GDP growth was revised up by 28.1% of its prior figure.  In between the data revision, we saw that personal consumption expenditure fell from its earlier figure but that net exports accounted for pretty much all of the +ve revision change.   Of this the majority of the improvement was accounted for by a decline in imports (64% of the revision improvement). 

We saw pretty much the same picture in the real data, although here the figure was also enhanced by a decline in the deflator.  Adjusting out for the trade improvement and revisions would have shown a sliver of a slowdown from earlier data.

What happens in overseas markets remains important and given the uptick in trade data in Q2, so does PCE growth in Q3, so watch out for retail sales, production, new orders and employment. 

Retail sales growth weakened in August and new durable goods orders showed marginal growth following a revised steep decline in July.  July 2013 on December 2011, total manufacturing orders are up only 0.67% and remained below their end of last cycle peak.  Industrial production rebounded in August after no change in July.  And, of course, what do we make of the inventory rumours at Wal-Mart?

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