US quarterly growth zooms to 3.6%..

The revision to Q3 data came principally from a rise in inventories over and above those originally reported.  In fact the revision to inventories swamped the upward revision to GDP on both a nominal and a real basis. 

From the start of the crisis it was clear that consumer demand was going to be hit because of debt, and as we moved throughout the crisis through high unemployment and low wage growth.  If we were to just look at PCE, you could say the US was close to or in a recession.

image

Inventories rise as demand falls and vice versa, but we have seen in the latest quarter an extraordinary deviation in the two:

image

And the input from net exports is weak, while the input from residential construction may well have peaked:

image

Also

Leave a Reply