A brief thought on market valuations

As I work my way back into the mental state required to hold the data points I just wanted to make one key point.   Many have commented on the pointlessness of market timing and therefore the pointlessness of listening to those who believe that a large negative market movement is around the corner.  I have never been one for wholesale market timing transactions, but I do believe that high market valuations impact one critical dimension of the portfolio and need to be treated with respect.   The higher a market is valued, in an out of equilibrium world, the lower the future expected returns.  Therefore, without an adjustment for future returns the liability demands  on the portfolio (which have likely been revised higher due to higher portfolio values) will place undue and increasing stress on the portfolio’s ability to meet those returns, especially in the event of an eventual market adjustment.   As markets rise and as the time frame of significant market risk extends, for a given level of liabilities, it makes sense to adjust asset allocation towards lower risk/fixed return asset classes.   We cannot ignore valuations and we cannot ignore their impact on the management of income and capital liabilities over time.    

Leave a Reply