Hello 2014- the tricks of trade – weak global growth isn’t the only problem & Hello 2014- another difficult year for emerging equities & Hello 2014- Asia in 2014- Watch Japan (FT’s Beyondbricks) & http://blogs.ft.com/beyond-brics/2013/12/27/hello-2014-dont-be-afraid-of-slower-chinese-growth/
China’s credit spiral (FT Alphaville)
The year of the Snake – 2013 returns in fixed income markets (Bond Vigilantes)
Another Soft Patch Ahead- (excerpt) (Dr Ed’s Blog) – inventories need to be watched as these could be impacting everything from employment to the PMIs (new orders, output, employment etc.
A good year ends, but what’s next for stocks- (Aswath Damodaran) – not that I am wholly in agreement with his analysis. Pure multiple comparisons are fine if the underlying economic fundamentals are similar to those referenced for historical comparison.
Is the U.S. economy really about to go boom? (Politico, hat tip Econbrowser)
Narrowing the Income Gap, Without Another Bust (New York Times)
The auditors’ footnotes (Free Exchange) – I would still tend to lump the three together if 2 and 3 are essentially off balance sheet vehicles. With an off balance sheet vehicle you are not only off balancing the debt but also the revenue stream. A tax base is also an asset, so to that extent most government debt, in terms of a liability that cannot be met from a revenue stream, is also contingent.
“Never reason from the previous peak” (Historinhas) – I do not believe that the current crisis is due to tight monetary policy per se, but the direct result of a combination of structural economic imbalances and excess asset focussed money supply growth (see my Capitalism in Crisis 3). Nevertheless, the crisis itself was triggered by a tightening of monetary policy, so technically, you could say the crisis was brought about by tight monetary policy.
Disinformation on Inequality (Krugman)