US employment data…perspective 1

The last two employment reports have been casting a shadow over the strength of the economic recovery.  

Just focussing on the last two months of data probably does some disservice to the underlying fundamentals.  October and November were relatively strong months, and although we can see a slowing trend (blue line, 4 month average), the last two months may be more correctly viewed as an adjustment.  The weather may or may not have had an impact. 

image

Construction and manufacturing employment showed relative strength, but rising inventories could well have something to do with this:

image

image

The service sector pace is slowing down though:

image

image

In particular health and education:

image

image

So while nothing to write home about, in terms of the last two months, the trend holds the concern.

Leave a Reply