US Industrial Production

Strong revisions to February data and a rise in March appear to show a resurgence in industrial production post winter blues.


Clearly the revised February bounce has been a strong one, and the short term data is also strong relative to historical benchmarks – note the two averages of monthly changes in non seasonal  industrial production (one with recessions excluded).

But if we look at this data with respect to cumulative changes over the year, we get a different picture:


The overall picture is one of relative weakness with short term recoveries.   So, as usual with this recovery, we wait and see….

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