If we were to look at headline real GDP growth to Q1 2014 we would see slow but stable growth:
But if we take out net exports and inventory accumulation, final domestic demand has been on a long slide:
And exports (especially goods exports) have tailed off over the last two quarters, with the net export contribution coming from a decline in imports:
In Q1 2014 net exports grew by 7,190 ($m), fed largely by a decline in imports of 10,364 ($m). Goods exports have grown by 580m since Q3 2013.
The CPB world trade monitor data confirms a global weakness in world trade, which may not be such a concern if it were not for the importance of the property market to Canadian jobs and income and the overall level of growth.
The other worrying piece of data is non farm inventories which have grown by 65% of the increase in GDP since Q3 2013. Large inventory accumulations pose risks going forward.