World trade

World trade fell 1% in November according to the CPB World Trade Monitor.  The 4 months since July represent the weakest period of growth since the earlier part of the year (Feb/March).  If we look on a monthly basis the slowdown has become more narrowly synchronised.  While world trade growth does go in cycles the pattern that is emerging is of stronger global growth till mid summer and fall back since that point.

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Note also:

US Manufacturing orders..underlying weakness raises questions about growth going forward.

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