Nominal retail sales data is typical of a recessionary environment, but much of this is due to declining gas prices.  Manufacturing output and new order data is also typical of recessionary conditions.   Motor vehicles and parts sales/new orders/output are still strong data points albeit showing signs of weakening, especially in the auto components.  Cycle to cycle we see retail sales, orders and output all failing to establish a clear positive post crisis fundamental growth trajectory.   That said there does not appear to any abrupt collapse in the data which is not necessarily a positive.

Retail Sales

Nominal retail sales excluding Motor Vehicles and Parts have been noticeably weak over the year:

Most the recent decline has been due to falling gas prices:

Motor vehicles and parts have been a stand out:

Recent data suggests this component’s growth rate has been slowing:

Total retail sales have decelerated noticeably since the summer although the annual rate is still benefitting from earlier rises:

And of interest is the recent weakness in retail sales ex Gas and Motor Vehicles and Parts:

Smoothed 6 monthly nominal data clearly shows a weakening cycle:

Real retail sales per capita have also failed to recover the highs of the previous cycle and highlight underlying fundamental demand weakness (To Nov re CPI adjustment):

Of note is the divergence between retail sales and income growth: does this signify a downturn as opposed to slower growth?

We can see the accumulated differential since 1992: prior to the financial crisis retail sales growth exceeded disposable income growth but has since turned to deficit, although the accumulated deficit is marginal.

New orders

Manufacturing orders remain in recession territory on a smoothed data basis:

Short term bursts in new orders need to be compared against the more important capacity issues raised by smoothed data analysis:

Quarterly and monthly rates show a recent uptick still dwarfed by year on year changes:

Durable goods order levels reached a peak in late 2014, fell back significantly and look to be reverting to a lower though stable trend:

Annual change in PPI is still deeply negative:

And order data needs to be viewed on both a nominal and a real basis (note that PPI and new order prices are not synchronised)

Despite the recent uptick, growth in orders remains weak historically:

Ex defence and transport the trend in durable goods orders is a negative one:

And on a longer term view:

Manufacturing/Industrial Production

And the clincher: the annualised rate of growth over 5 year rolling time frames from high water mark levels: 

As previously noted there are two trends in the data we see: a slowdown from raised rates of activity experienced in 2014 and a decline in activity associated with a decline in global trade and manufacturing in general:

Industrial production is clearly in recession territory:

And the long term trend remains weak:

Weakness in mining, machinery is significant and we see are seeing a decline in motor vehicle and parts growth too:

In particular we see considerable weakness in the auto production component of Motor Vehicles and Parts: