With the recent CPI data I have updated my retail sales graphics.  Takeaways?

1. Sales growth is slowing but no recessionary conditions;
2. Weak historical growth profile held up by motor vehicles and parts sales;
3. Motor vehicle and parts sales held up by consumer credit growth;
4. Points 2 and 3 slowing;
5. While personal disposable income has exceeded retail sales growth of late, cumulative historic relationship remains weak;
6. Consumer credit growth to income relationships strained;
7. Population growth weak in historical context;
8. Current cycle lacking in typical wage growth spike

And the graphs:

Sales growth is slowing, but no “real” sign of recessionary conditions:

Annual growth rates are buoyed by weak data a year ago and while by no means strong compared to prior cycles are not, at this metric, exhibiting the kind of weakness you would ordinarily be worried about:

But as I have been pointing out for some time, retail sales strength has been supported by motor vehicles and parts sales, itself fuelled by consumer credit growth:

But motor vehicle and parts sales have been slowing over the last six months:

And consumer credit as a % of personal disposable income keeps on rising:

And relative to income growth is currently at all time highs:

And yes, of late disposable income has moved ahead of retail sales growth and many question why consumers are not spending savings from commodity price declines:

But we can see that cumulative growth in personal disposable income remains well below pre crisis levels: cumulative increase in food sales less cumulate increase in personal disposable income is negative:

And of course, of late, consumer credit growth has taken a step back:

Population growth likewise:

And we have lacked a spike in wage growth: