CPB World Trade Monitor Update

The recent CPB World Trade Monitor Update (to February): growth in world trade volumes despite a February rebound from a January decline, based on high water mark analysis, are showing significant weakness:

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World export growth based on smoothed 6 monthly data has shown significant weakening:

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Add in weak readings in the recent flash Markit Manufacturing PMIs for Japan, the US and Europe, the weak St Louis Fed GDP Now readings and slowdown in Q1 China growth, and we see little in the tea levels that would suggest any meaningful reversion in the above trend is underway.

Monthly export data has been volatile:

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Six monthly data shows a mild bounce back but do not be deceived:

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Annual growth rates reflect a peak in activity and a considerable slowdown in growth:

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We can get a better fix on this slowdown via growth rates from prior highs as to prior data points: this is reflected in the confluence of monthly, 6 monthly and annual growth rates based on high water marks:

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Back to exports and if we look at smoothed data (the data series is a smoothed 6 month average as opposed to a monthly discrete data set) we see a a quite well defined deceleration in annual world export growth rates.

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And graphs for the specific markets:

Asia:

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US:

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Japan:

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Europe:

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