Some concerns with the April data:
April is seasonally a weak month and any transfer of consumption capacity to it would skew the monthly data in favour of a higher seasonally adjusted change.
It is not the rebound in the data that is important but the strength of the trend. The pattern over the last 3 years is for a weakening in the strength of the rebound and retail sales growth.
Inventories are high relative to sales but they have likely never been higher once we factor in the growth rate of inventories relative to sales.
And the supporting graphics:
Seasonally adjusted retail sales grew at the fastest rate for some time. Eye popping almost! But April is typically a weak month and we have had relative weakness during Q1 2016.
The following chart shows the actual, unadjusted, expenditure on a monthly basis for the above seasonally adjusted chart. If consumption capacity had been transferred to April from prior months its adjusted impact would have been skewed.
More importantly is whether the rebound in adjusted consumption represents a continuation of a weakening trend or not? This is the real question!
Also, retail inventories relative to sales remain at relatively high levels:
The highest level since 2004/2005. However, once we realise that 2004/2005 inventory levels accompanied higher retail sales growth relative to inventory growth we can see that the inventory/sales dynamic is weaker still.